Capability · Logistics and sustainment
Industrial base and critical materials
Processing of critical minerals and manufacture of constrained defense components (permanent magnets, rocket motors) that sit upstream of fielded systems.
Assessment
Case for · why it matters
Drone motors, guidance actuators, radars and missiles depend on a few upstream materials whose refining is concentrated in China, which produced 91% of refined magnet rare earths and 94% of sintered magnets in 2024. Export controls have already turned that concentration into supply disruptions.
Case against · the skeptic’s view
Defense is a small share of demand for most critical minerals, which limits governments' leverage over the market, and new non-Chinese projects still leave the top three refining countries with over 90% of supply in 2030 on IEA projections.
Breakdown3
- Permanent-magnet manufacturingMaking rare-earth metal and alloy and sintering or bonding NdFeB and SmCo magnets for motors and actuators.Fielded
- Rare-earth separation and refiningProcesses (solvent extraction, ion-exchange chromatography, and others) that separate mixed rare-earth concentrate into individual oxides such as NdPr, dysprosium and terbium.Fielded
- Solid rocket motor manufacturingCasting, curing and integrating solid-propellant rocket motors for tactical missiles, interceptors and boosters.Fielded
Sources1
- 1
International Energy Agency · May 21, 2025 · Supports Technology
“as it single-handedly represented 91% of the refined output.”
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